• Posted April 9, 2026

Years of Excess Weight, Not One Bad Checkup, Drive Heart Disease Risk

Health experts have known for a long time that being overweight can lead to heart disease. 

A new study, however, suggests that the length of time you carry that weight is the most important factor.

Instead of looking at a person's weight status at one point in time, researchers from Mass General Brigham found that the cumulative impact of excess weight over a decade more closely predicts future heart attacks and strokes.

The study — published April 8 in the journal PLOS One — analyzed data from 136,498 participants. 

By tracking weight changes between 1990 and 2000 and following participants' health for nearly 17 years, researchers discovered that the longer a person stays in a high-weight category, the higher their cardiovascular risk climbs.

All of the participants had a BMI over 25, classifying them as overweight. BMI, shorthand for Body Mass Index, is an estimate of body fat based on height and weight.

Researchers placed participants in four quartiles based on how long they stayed overweight. They looked at how risk differed by age group too.

The study found that younger adults are particularly vulnerable to the long-term effects of obesity. 

Women under 35 who had high cumulative exposure to excess weight saw their risk of heart disease jump by 60%. In contrast, the risk for 35- to 50-year-old women was 27%, and for 35- to 65-year-old men, it was 23%.

For women over 50 and men over 65, there was no significant link between long-term weight and new heart issues.

“What happens to someone’s weight over long periods of time matters more for heart health,” corresponding author Dr. Alexander Turchin said in a news release. Turchin is a physician at Mass General Brigham and an associate professor at Harvard Medical School. 

He noted that while a single high BMI reading might be a warning sign, it is the mileage of that weight that does the most damage to the heart and arteries.

Despite the risk for younger people, researchers emphasized that patients are not stuck with their current risk profile. Unlike some health factors that are permanent, weight is a variable that can be changed to improve longevity.

“Excess weight at any given point in time is not a life sentence,” Turchin said. “Our study suggests that if a person lowers their weight, their health outcomes can improve.”

The findings provide a strong incentive for doctors and patients to start weight management early in life. By addressing weight issues in one's 20s or 30s, individuals may be able to reset their cardiovascular clock and avoid the long-term damage that cumulative obesity causes, researchers said.

The study was funded by Eli Lilly.

More information

The National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute offers resources on how to maintain a healthy weight for heart health.

SOURCES: Mass General Brigham, news release, April 8, 2026; PLOS One, April 8, 2026